The path to the presidency runs through a dozen battleground states. But the polls also got the battleground states wrong, hilariously so. We’re watching Pennsylvania especially closely, as any movement here matters a lot in our forecast, as it’s the state currently most likely to decide the Electoral College. The Economist model continues to favor Biden’s prospects in PA, AZ, FL, and NC a bit more than the 538 model, while the opposite is true for OH … Neither new poll showed much of a change from its previous Pennsylvania survey either. With 11 months to go, The Fulcrum reviewed information from state elections officials, the National Conference of State Legislatures, the Election Assistance Commission and news reports to get a sense of the election security landscape. Meanwhile, UMass Lowell found the two candidates knotted at 48 percent apiece, which was pretty much the same as a late September poll that found them tied at 47 percent. But the short of it in Georgia is that results showing Biden slightly ahead or tied with Trump have become more common. IA & TX — Where Biden is seeing a more favorable trend under the 538 model. Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN. For this version of Battleground States forecasts, I thought I would contrast the 538 model with that of the Economist over the past couple of weeks. Were 2020 election polls wrong? The Battleground States That Will Likely Decide the Election The decisive tallies for Trump and Biden are expected to come from among just 11 states New Poll of 2,289 Voters In 4 Battleground States: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, And Wisconsin. And yesterday, Reuters/Ipsos also reported a small downturn in Biden’s numbers, as their poll found him up by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent, a slight tick down from his 4-point lead about a week ago. MI 100 % in. Geoffrey Skelley is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. How Republicans Stole a Florida State Senate Seat December 3, 2020 at 4:40 pm EST December 3, 2020 at 4:49 pm EST The Miami Herald looks at the origins of a phantom candidate who was put on the ballot to steal votes from the Democrats in a tight Florida state senate race…. Winning battleground states can significantly increase the candidate's chance of winning the Presidency. (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.). Of all the most crucial battleground states (PA, FL, AZ, NC, IA, GA, OH, TX), all are rated more favorably now for the Democrats under the Economist model compared to 538’s model — … In fact, two new polls released today showed essentially no movement compared to each of the pollsters’ last surveys in North Carolina. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. Florida (175) Ohio (133) 7:22 PM. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. How Georgia Turned Blue By Perry Bacon Jr. There are 18 other states where we have one or two polls, including surveys in potential battleground states that also suggest that Biden has an overall edge. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Former Vice President Joe Biden’s team is talking a big game about an expanded electoral map with … In general, they are in close agreement with each other, with the main difference being at the extremes where the Economist model is much more likely to up rate or down the respective chances (i.e. Because not all of the news was good for Biden in Ohio. Addressing the COVID-19 pandemic, economic well-being, and health care were top priorities during the November election.... Sign the petition: TRUMP MUST IMMEDIATELY CONCEDE and Congress must ensure he steps down. Was that the goal? Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.. Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Georgia (124) Louisiana 5th District Election: Overview and Live Results. @geoffreyvs, 2020 Election (1149 posts) For this version of Battleground States forecasts, I thought I would contrast the 538 model with that of the Economist over the past couple of weeks. Here's the state of play in the 13 states likeliest to be presidential battlegrounds. Biden has improved standing in many battleground states, 538 says. States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast gives Joe Biden an 89 in 100 shot at winning the election, while President Trump has just an 11 in 100 chance. Swing state … State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. GA 100 % in. States of the Race. In the US Presidential elections, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes of the 538 that are up for grabs. How Joe Biden won the key swing states and secured 2020 election victory Joe Biden has won seven swing states, including Georgia, which has pushed him to win the election with 306 electoral votes That is, if the polls mostly hold where they are, it will take a sizable polling error for Trump to win. Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.) Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Irontortoise. The president is running out of time to change his fate in these key 2020 battlegrounds. Nov. 3, 2020. However, Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by just 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent, which marked a sizable slide from the 11-point edge it gave Biden in early October. Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. Arizona. The New York Times Upshot/Siena College found Biden ahead by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, pretty similar to the 46 percent to 42 percent edge they gave him in mid-October, but now with fewer undecided voters. And the margin as it currently stands leaves room for Trump to win on Nov. 3 — or after, as it might take a bit to get the final result there. UPDATED Nov. 3, 2020, at 12:15 AM. The path to the presidency runs through a dozen battleground states. Washington, D.C., has three electors, for a national total of 538. However, some other key states haven’t seen much movement despite new polling. Assassination in Iran could limit Biden’s options. By Geoffrey Skelley. However, Biden’s advantage would be more concrete were his position in Pennsylvania to improve in the closing days of the campaign. Two new polls out today precipitated this shift toward Biden, moving the state’s polling average from a 2-point Trump lead to a tie. 2020 Presidential Election (38) We’ve become a flyover state and while you may … Georgia. IA 98 % in. Here's Why. No state balances on a knife’s edge like Florida, the most populous and consistently competitive of the nation’s battleground states. State Polls (13). NRaleighLiberal (53,030 posts) 538 "The Battleground States Where We've Seen Some Movement In The Polls" And states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which have largely remained the … Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Compiled together, the 8 battleground states amount to only 119 electoral votes of the 538 assigned to the 50 states and District of Columbia. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. Colorado is not one of them. A Changing Electoral Map. New Battleground State Polls. Some of the states are considered safe for one candidate or the other, but the battleground states have a large number of electoral votes. This is important because Georgia is a state that Trump absolutely must win to have any chance of victory — in fact, he wins in less than 1 percent of the scenarios in which Biden carries it. Things look a little better in Biden’s other stretch state, Georgia, where RCP has him up.4 points, and 538 gives him a 1.7-point edge over Trump in the Peach State. The four battleground states fired back, ... Federal law defers to states in choosing the 538 electors, and Congress ultimately counts those votes. All of those states went to Trump in 2016, but there are some indications from early polling that at least some might be among the battleground states in play in 2020. Most importantly, Quinnipiac University found Biden up by 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent, which was a fairly substantial improvement for Biden from Quinnipiac’s last survey in early October that had him up by just 1 point. Each US state gets a certain number of votes partly based on its population and there are a total of 538 up for grabs. 538 Battleground State Forecasts Update -- October 12. State Prev ious Status New Status RCP Electoral Count RCP National Avg. 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